Dynamic relationship between the stock market and macroeconomy in China (1995–2018): new evidence from the continuous wavelet analysis

This article examines the relationship between the stock market and three widely used macroeconomic variables, namely industrial production growth, inflation, and long-term interest rate in China. We use the continuous wavelet analysis to investigate the correlations and lead–lag relationships between them in the time–frequency domain by covering a period of 1995M01- 2018M04. Our findings show the positive relationship between stock returns and industrial production growth and between stock returns and inflation. Notably, we find that stock returns and long-term interest rate are negatively correlated in short and medium terms, while they are positively correlated in the long term. The puzzling positive correlation between stock returns and interest rate as well as the mixed lead–lag relationships suggest that the Chinese stock market is quite undeveloped. There are breakdowns of the link between the stock market and macroeconomy. Neither the stock return can be used as a leading indicator of the macroeconomy nor the real economy could predict the booms or busts of the Chinese stock market

Spatial variability of the effect of air pollution on term birth weight: evaluating influential factors using Bayesian hierarchical models

Background: Epidemiological studies suggest that air pollution is adversely associated with pregnancy outcomes. Such associations may be modified by spatially-varying factors including socio-demographic characteristics, land-use patterns and unaccounted exposures. Yet, few studies have systematically investigated the impact of these factors on spatial variability of the air pollution's effects. This study aimed to examine spatial variability of the effects of air pollution on term birth weight across Census tracts and the influence of tract-level factors on such variability. Methods: We obtained over 900,000 birth records from 2001 to 2008 in Los Angeles County, California, USA. Air pollution exposure was modeled at individual level for nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) using spatiotemporal models. Two-stage Bayesian hierarchical non-linear models were developed to (1) quantify the associations between air pollution exposure and term birth weight within each tract; and (2) examine the sociodemographic, land-use, and exposure-related factors contributing to the between-tract variability of the associations between air pollution and term birth weight. Results: Higher air pollution exposure was associated with lower term birth weight (average posterior effects: -14.7 (95 % CI: -19.8, -9.7) g per 10 ppb increment in NO2 and -6.9 (95 % CI: -12.9, -0.9) g per 10 ppb increment in NOx). The variation of the association across Census tracts was significantly influenced by the tract-level sociodemographic, exposure-related and land-use factors. Our models captured the complex non-linear relationship between these factors and the associations between air pollution and term birth weight: we observed the thresholds from which the influence of the tract-level factors was markedly exacerbated or attenuated. Exacerbating factors might reflect additional exposure to environmental insults or lower socio-economic status with higher vulnerability, whereas attenuating factors might indicate reduced exposure or higher socioeconomic status with lower vulnerability. Conclusions: Our Bayesian models effectively combined a priori knowledge with training data to infer the posterior association of air pollution with term birth weight and to evaluate the influence of the tract-level factors on spatial variability of such association. This study contributes new findings about non-linear influences of socio-demographic factors, land-use patterns, and unaccounted exposures on spatial variability of the effects of air pollution

Refining Time-Activity Classification of Human Subjects Using the Global Positioning System

BACKGROUND:Detailed spatial location information is important in accurately estimating personal exposure to air pollution. Global Position System (GPS) has been widely used in tracking personal paths and activities. Previous researchers have developed time-activity classification models based on GPS data, most of them were developed for specific regions. An adaptive model for time-location classification can be widely applied to air pollution studies that use GPS to track individual level time-activity patterns. METHODS:Time-activity data were collected for seven days using GPS loggers and accelerometers from thirteen adult participants from Southern California under free living conditions. We developed an automated model based on random forests to classify major time-activity patterns (i.e. indoor, outdoor-static, outdoor-walking, and in-vehicle travel). Sensitivity analysis was conducted to examine the contribution of the accelerometer data and the supplemental spatial data (i.e. roadway and tax parcel data) to the accuracy of time-activity classification. Our model was evaluated using both leave-one-fold-out and leave-one-subject-out methods. RESULTS:Maximum speeds in averaging time intervals of 7 and 5 minutes, and distance to primary highways with limited access were found to be the three most important variables in the classification model. Leave-one-fold-out cross-validation showed an overall accuracy of 99.71%. Sensitivities varied from 84.62% (outdoor walking) to 99.90% (indoor). Specificities varied from 96.33% (indoor) to 99.98% (outdoor static). The exclusion of accelerometer and ambient light sensor variables caused a slight loss in sensitivity for outdoor walking, but little loss in overall accuracy. However, leave-one-subject-out cross-validation showed considerable loss in sensitivity for outdoor static and outdoor walking conditions. CONCLUSIONS:The random forests classification model can achieve high accuracy for the four major time-activity categories. The model also performed well with just GPS, road and tax parcel data. However, caution is warranted when generalizing the model developed from a small number of subjects to other populations

Statistical modeling of spatially stratified heterogeneous data

Spatial statistics is an important methodology for geospatial data analysis. It has evolved to handle spatially autocorrelated data and spatially (locally) heterogeneous data, which aim to capture the first and second laws of geography, respectively. Examples of spatially stratified heterogeneity (SSH) include climatic zones and land-use types. Methods for such data are relatively underdeveloped compared to the first two properties. The presence of SSH is evidence that nature is lawful and structured rather than purely random. This induces another “layer” of causality underlying variations observed in geographical data. In this article, we go beyond traditional cluster-based approaches and propose a unified approach for SSH in which we provide an equation for SSH, display how SSH is a source of bias in spatial sampling and confounding in spatial modeling, detect nonlinear stochastic causality inherited in SSH distribution, quantify general interaction identified by overlaying two SSH distributions, perform spatial prediction based on SSH, develop a new measure for spatial goodness of fit, and enhance global modeling by integrating them with an SSH q statistic. The research advances statistical theory and methods for dealing with SSH data, thereby offering a new toolbox for spatial data analysis

Physics-Informed Deep Learning to Reduce the Bias in Joint Prediction of Nitrogen Oxides

Atmospheric nitrogen oxides (NOx) primarily from fuel combustion have recognized acute and chronic health and environmental effects. Machine learning (ML) methods have significantly enhanced our capacity to predict NOx concentrations at ground-level with high spatiotemporal resolution but may suffer from high estimation bias since they lack physical and chemical knowledge about air pollution dynamics. Chemical transport models (CTMs) leverage this knowledge; however, accurate predictions of ground-level concentrations typically necessitate extensive post-calibration. Here, we present a physics-informed deep learning framework that encodes advection-diffusion mechanisms and fluid dynamics constraints to jointly predict NO2 and NOx and reduce ML model bias by 21-42%. Our approach captures fine-scale transport of NO2 and NOx, generates robust spatial extrapolation, and provides explicit uncertainty estimation. The framework fuses knowledge-driven physicochemical principles of CTMs with the predictive power of ML for air quality exposure, health, and policy applications. Our approach offers significant improvements over purely data-driven ML methods and has unprecedented bias reduction in joint NO2 and NOx prediction

Deep Residual Autoencoder with Multiscaling for Semantic Segmentation of Land-Use Images

Semantic segmentation is a fundamental means of extracting information from remotely sensed images at the pixel level. Deep learning has enabled considerable improvements in efficiency and accuracy of semantic segmentation of general images. Typical models range from benchmarks such as fully convolutional networks, U-Net, Micro-Net, and dilated residual networks to the more recently developed DeepLab 3+. However, many of these models were originally developed for segmentation of general or medical images and videos, and are not directly relevant to remotely sensed images. The studies of deep learning for semantic segmentation of remotely sensed images are limited. This paper presents a novel flexible autoencoder-based architecture of deep learning that makes extensive use of residual learning and multiscaling for robust semantic segmentation of remotely sensed land-use images. In this architecture, a deep residual autoencoder is generalized to a fully convolutional network in which residual connections are implemented within and between all encoding and decoding layers. Compared with the concatenated shortcuts in U-Net, these residual connections reduce the number of trainable parameters and improve the learning efficiency by enabling extensive backpropagation of errors. In addition, resizing or atrous spatial pyramid pooling (ASPP) can be leveraged to capture multiscale information from the input images to enhance the robustness to scale variations. The residual learning and multiscaling strategies improve the trained model’s generalizability, as demonstrated in the semantic segmentation of land-use types in two real-world datasets of remotely sensed images. Compared with U-Net, the proposed method improves the Jaccard index (JI) or the mean intersection over union (MIoU) by 4-11% in the training phase and by 3-9% in the validation and testing phases. With its flexible deep learning architecture, the proposed approach can be easily applied for and transferred to semantic segmentation of land-use variables and other surface variables of remotely sensed images

Geographically Weighted Machine Learning and Downscaling for High-Resolution Spatiotemporal Estimations of Wind Speed

High-resolution spatiotemporal wind speed mapping is useful for atmospheric environmental monitoring, air quality evaluation and wind power siting. Although modern reanalysis techniques can obtain reliable interpolated surfaces of meteorology at a high temporal resolution, their spatial resolutions are coarse. Local variability of wind speed is difficult to capture due to its volatility. Here, a two-stage approach was developed for robust spatiotemporal estimations of wind speed at a high resolution. The proposed approach consists of geographically weighted ensemble machine learning (Stage 1) and downscaling based on meteorological reanalysis data (Stage 2). The geographically weighted machine learning method is based on three base learners, which are an autoencoder-based deep residual network, XGBoost and random forest, and it incorporates spatial autocorrelation and heterogeneity to boost the ensemble predictions. With reanalysis data, downscaling was introduced in Stage 2 to reduce bias and spatial abrupt (non-natural) variation in the predictions inferred from Stage 1. The autoencoder-based residual network was used in Stage 2 to adjust the difference between the averages of the fine-resolution predicted values and the coarse-resolution reanalysis data to ensure consistency. Using mainland China as a case study, the geographically weighted regression (GWR) ensemble predictions were shown to perform better than individual learners’ predictions (with an approximately 12–16% improvement in R2 and a decrease of 0.14–0.19 m/s in root mean square error). Downscaling further improved the predictions by reducing inconsistency and obtaining better spatial variation (smoothing). The proposed approach can also be applied for the high-resolution spatiotemporal estimation of other meteorological parameters or surface variables involving remote sensing images (i.e. reliable coarsely resolved data), ground monitoring data and other relevant factors

High-Resolution Mapping of Aerosol Optical Depth and Ground Aerosol Coefficients for Mainland China

Aerosols play an important role in climate change, and ground aerosols (e.g., fine particulate matter, abbreviated as PM2.5) are associated with a variety of health problems. Due to clouds and high reflectance conditions, satellite-derived aerosol optical depth (AOD) products usually have large percentages of missing values (e.g., on average greater than 60% for mainland China), which limits their applicability. In this study, we generated grid maps of high-resolution, daily complete AOD and ground aerosol coefficients for the large study area of mainland China from 2015 to 2018. Based on the AOD retrieved using the recent Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction advanced algorithm, we added a geographic zoning factor to account for variability in meteorology, and developed an adaptive method based on the improved full residual deep network (with attention layers) to impute extensively missing AOD in the whole study area consistently and reliably. Furthermore, we generated high-resolution grid maps of complete AOD and ground aerosol coefficients. Overall, compared with the original residual model, in the independent test of 20% samples, our daily models achieved an average test R2 of 0.90 (an improvement of approximately 5%) with a range of 0.75–0.97 (average test root mean square error: 0.075). This high test performance shows the validity of AOD imputation. In the evaluation using the ground AOD data from six Aerosol Robotic Network monitoring stations, our method obtained an R2 of 0.78, which further illustrated the reliability of the dataset. In addition, ground aerosol coefficients were generated to provide an improved correlation with PM2.5. With the complete AOD data and ground coefficients, we presented and interpreted their spatiotemporal variations in mainland China. This study has important implications for using satellite-derived AOD to estimate aerosol air pollutants